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Wednesday, April 06, 2005

 
The Coming Bush Tax Shift

The following article by me apeared in the San Francisco Daily Journal a couple of weeks before the last presidental election:


Recent federal tax laws have continued a quarter-century trend of shifting taxes from wealth to work, primarily benefitting the top 1% income bracket. Even among the top 1%, the tax burden is heavier on those who work for their money than on those whose money works for them.
Last month, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calculated the change in the share of total federal taxes due to the Bush tax laws. The CBO, a nonpartisan government agency headed by a former senior economist from the Bush administration, clearly shows who benefits.
The highest quintile is the only income bracket that has a reduced share of total federal taxes in every year up to 2010, when the Bush cuts sunset. The reduction in share of the federal tax burden due solely to the change in laws for those in the top 1% is three times the average reduction for those in the top 20%.
The tax burden has been shifted to wage earners. From 2001 to 2010, the change in the share of the tax burden for those in the lowest 20% income group is 0.0%. If your income is between the bottom 20% and the top 20%, the tax burden has been shifted to you.
Citizens for Tax Justice (CTJ) calculates that without sunsets, the top 5% income bracket would see a reduction in their share of the tax burden, with the reduction greatest for the top 1%. Without sunsets, the bottom 95% income bracket would see an increase in their share of the tax burden in 2010.
Why this disparity? CTJ released a paper in May 2004 showing that total federal personal taxes paid on wages and other earnings now average 23.4%, while federal personal taxes on investment income average only 9.6%. Taxes on earnings are almost two and half times taxes on investment income. Plus, taxes on investment income are only 11% of total personal taxes, while investment income makes up 22% of total income.
Does the tax shift to working people matter if taxes have gone down for everyone?
First, it is simply not true that the Bush tax shift has reduced everyone's total federal tax rates for more than a few years. According to the CBO, the total effective federal tax rates for every quintile are lower in 2004 than they were in 2001, when Bush's tax shift was enacted. But beginning in 2005 and continuing through 2010, the total effective federal tax rates for every quintile in the bottom 80% will be higher than in 2001. And in 2009 and 2010, the total effective federal tax rate for even the average person in the top quintile will be higher than it was in 2001. For those in the top 5%, their total effective federal tax rate will still be lower.
This is current law. Reality may be worse. Bruce Bartlett wrote in National Review Online that taxes will likely increase beginning next year, regardless of who is elected President. The reason is that the heavy spending enacted while tax revenues were reduced has resulted in a huge public debt that will have to be paid. Bartlett writes, "Since fiscal year 2000, the federal budget has gone from a surplus of $87 billion to an estimated deficit of $675 billion. In the last four years, the national debt has increased by almost $2 trillion and will continue to increase for many more years even under the most optimistic scenario, absent legislative changes."
The CBO reported this month that under current law the national debt will increase by $2.3 trillion over the next decade, and that could double if Bush's cuts become permanent. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testified that without legislative changes, government borrowing will eventually crowd out private borrowing and drive interest rates higher. The government would have to pay higher interest, increasing the debt even more, creating a downward fiscal spiral.
Could the necessary legislative changes include reductions in federal spending? Only in theory. John Kerry wants to maintain the occupation in Iraq, increase troop levels by 40,000, protect Social Security entitlements, and expand healthcare to more of our nation's 44 million uninsured. Any spending he may want to reduce must be minuscule in comparison to these commitments.
Those who want to vote for someone who talks a lot about restraining government spending can vote for Bush. Bush claims that Kerry is someone who has been in federal government for 20 years and has decided that it is not big enough.
However, in his first four years in federal government, Bush himself has increased non-defense federal spending more than the five Presidents before him. According to the Cato Institute, Ronald Reagan was the only President of the past eight (including Bush II) to serve a full term and reduce nondefense federal spending in his first four years in office.
In ascending order of free spending, Clinton increased nondefense federal spending 0.7% in his first four years, Carter increased it by 7.6%, Bush I by 13.9%, Nixon by 22.5%, and Bush II by 25.3%. Only Johnson, pursuing a War on Poverty, beat Bush II, increasing nondefense federal spending by 34.2% in his first four years in office. Bush II's achievement here does not even count the War on Terror or the Wars on Iraq or Afghanistan.
Bush II is not alone in his party. According to Reuters, on November 30, 2003, over a year after the Republicans won the midterm election for both houses of Congress, Republican Senator John McCain stated, "Congress is now spending money like a drunken sailor." The Republican Party Platform adopted at their convention this year only states, "...our leaders must make sure that the growth of the federal government remains [sic] in check." Actually reducing federal spending is not a stated goal.
If taxes do rise next year, who will pay? John Kerry has proposed repealing the tax cuts for those making over $200,000 per year, and his running mate consistently condemns the current administration for shifting taxes from wealth to work. But Kerry also wants to lower corporate income taxes by 5%.
Bush and the Republicans seem convinced that it is bad for the economy to tax investment income at the same rates (or higher) as wage income. And they seem committed to ending the estate tax. Currently the estate tax is levied only on those who leave multimillion dollar estates. If eliminated, and the revenue is replaced, it will be difficult to find a new tax that does not fall on people poorer than those who currently pay the estate tax.The challenger this election has called for tax increases on those making over $200,000 and campaigns against shifting taxes from wealth to work, but admits he will increase spending and wants to reduce corporate taxes by 5%. The incumbent talks about restraining spending while fighting two wars and increasing nondefense spending more than three times faster than Jimmy Carter, and talks about reducing taxes while merely shifting them into the future and onto workers. Bartlett ended his article for National Review Online stating, "Therefore, taxes will be on the table. Voters need to ask themselves which party they prefer to manage this process when the time comes."



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